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𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐂𝐎𝐈𝐍 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄➜➜➜
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In this video, I discuss the current reluctance to admit that the US economy is in a recession and compare it to the 1970’s when Alfred Khan was forced to use the word “banana” instead of “recession.”
I believe that the Fed has now pivoted and that risk assets (stocks, Bitcoin) should do really well for the rest of the year. This does not mean that there will not be any more inflation, famine, or other human suffering.
The Fed will ultimately choose the path of inflation, since austerity will never be politically tolerated.
Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.
The bear market is over:
Alfred Khan:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_E._Kahn
Banana=recession:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1978/12/03/yes-well-have-no-banana/ff66f487-7e1a-4579-a199-5750373405c9/
Biden denies the recession:
https://twitter.com/breaking911/status/1552706926080937989?s=27
Yellen denies the recession:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/24/icymi-treasury-secretary-yellen-says-us-economy-not-in-recession/
ECRI on recessions and negative real GDP growth:
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-ecri-does-two-down-quarters-gdp-mean-recession
FT thinks it’s a recession:
Financial Times: The United States enters technical recession after contraction in second-quarter growth. pic.twitter.com/5CogYa06v8
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) July 28, 2022
Wikipedia edits to recession entry:
Wikipedia has changed the definition of recession.
Wayback's last capture was July 11, 2022.
Based on Wiki's changelog, the line: "There is no global consensus on the definition of a recession" was added on July 27.
The page is now locked. pic.twitter.com/6tx1vPHEPM
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 28, 2022
Chart of US debt/GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Elizabeth Warren applying pressure to the Fed:
The Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes risk pushing the U.S. economy into recession — and the evidence is in the data.
While failing to address many drivers of inflation, the Fed is pumping the brakes on the labor market and slowing the economy.
Congress needs to step up.
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) July 28, 2022
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#stocks
#recession
#fed
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