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What do we expect from the Fed if markets are crashing because Trump is trying to get a little bit more juice out of these tariff negotiations? Ultimately, they’ll go back to the status quo — we know that’s what’s going to happen because they can’t handle the volatility. Then we get the setup for Powell to implement Supplemental Leverage Ratio exemptions. We set the stage for Powell to announce that he’s ending quantitative tightening — the receipts from maturing mortgage-backed securities will be used to buy Treasuries. He’s already said they’re considering that.
So I think those two things could be on the table for announcement at Jackson Hole. And that’s human psychology — how markets work — which is why I believe we run to those kinds of levels very, very quickly, and then have a pause.
I mean, obviously ETH had a good run, but it’s still at the equivalent of twenty-five thousand in Bitcoin terms. And the Bitcoin-ETH ratio is still not great. So, to really see altcoin dominance go down, you really need ETH to rally. We’ll see if that happens. But right now, I’m more focused on Bitcoin because that’s what everyone owns — the people who are afraid of a bond market meltdown, who hold a lot of bonds — the large institutions of the world.
Now they have this Bitcoin ETF, and they can buy it. They can express that fear by buying Bitcoin. And if the price keeps rising, it just confirms that something is happening. It’s not just going away. It’s not just a high bid in the NASDAQ, right? Or maybe it is a high bid in the NASDAQ, and it’s crushing the NASDAQ this year. And guess what? I can join the train. I can join the party.
That’s why I think Bitcoin dominance either stays flat or increases — if we don’t go on a full run. I think altcoins really come into the space later in the year, once we’re in the meat of the rally.
Republican legislators need to start campaigning on ‘What did you do for me lately?’ — that’s what the voter is going to be asking. So I think all this doom and gloom talk is out the window. It’s, ‘America is the best place in the world. Look at what we did in the first hundred days. I’m fucking amazing. We beat back China. They fucking bent the knee. We did the deals in the Middle East.’ All these sorts of things, right?
Maybe there’s a recession, maybe there’s not — I don’t really care. It doesn’t matter. I just know the money needs to be printing. The party in power wants to get reelected — just like the Democrats did the same thing when the Fed cut rates for Kamala Harris. Unfortunately for them, she lost, but it’s the same playbook. At the end of the day, that playbook really kicks off in the fall. That’s why I think that’s when we get the real juicy phase — just day after day of green candles across the crypto ecosystem.”
Bitcoin ETF Institutions’ Secret Weapon Against Bond Market Meltdown | Arthur Hayes #shorts
#Arthur Hayes #bitcoin #crypto
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